Great Decisions Class 8. THREAT ASSESSMENT Friday, 29March2013
Guide Book and Pre-Meeting Notes
Guide Book classifies threats on a two dimensional scale : Intent vs. Lethality.
Jim's notes are in italic: This does not consider economic costs. In my youth juries awarded one million in damages for a life, lessor for non-life injury. Awards are now much more in direct and compensatory awards. Can there be a ratio for economics and lethality?. Can a terrorist avoid targeting by only destroying the electrical grid or causing stomach illness?
Pandemic Threat
Both natural and terrorism of great lethality.
NEW WAVE OF 'SUPERBUGS' POSE DIRE THREAT...
Resistance to antibiotics now 'ticking timebomb'...
CDC Issues Warning Over SARS-Like Virus From Middle East...
Economic Crisis
Political self-interest, seldom lethal, only expensive.
Example
Blue ribbon proposals in Simpson-Bowles report to reduce spending.
Fiscal Graph
Gold supply "reclassified". Some details
Asian Challenge, China Puzzle
China is potentially a military foe and a valuable economic partner.
Growth is predicted to slow, will it be before or after liberalization. Will the result be democracy or repression?
- China now fields one of the world's most expansive drone fleets, soon able to overwhelm any opposition. -- 13Mar'13
- China, with many business executives being educated in the West, are making the country less tolerant of corruption. -- 14Mar'13
Arab Spring
Radical Islamists may reap the benefits. The Muslim Brotherhood is the most politically organized. Transition from authoritative to another form of government is unpredictable.
The Brotherhood is the most/only organized party.
Nuclear Rogues
Five states, US, UK, USSR, FR, China, are part to the 1968 non-proliferation treaty, plus
we now add Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and possibly Iran.
Some of these countries do not like another.
Cyber Threats
Our Guide considers cyber-threat as an inconvenience that is now costing a few billion dollars per year. It is noted that nobody
wants to absorb the costs of a secure system.
Recall the Year 2000 scare about dates in computer programs? This was averted in part because people like me reviewed every computer program in existence during the two years before and had technical people standing by at midnight. Computer viruses, denial of service attacks exist to exploit holes in the systems. Natural failures indicate that the electric power, internet finances are vulnerable. Recall some government's intentional attack against Iranian nuclear facilities, and on Estonia as a sample attack,
attacks to data bases to gain personal data, and of government installations for sport and intelligence gathering are way too common. Personal computers take extensive expense and time to protect and for recovery after attack in dollars and hours.
Army expands cyber warfare center from 900 people to 5,000 as
it acknowledges change from defense to offensive intents. -- 11Feb'13.
SecDef Panetta warns that the next Pearl Harbor could well be a computer-based assault. -- 13Feb'13.
A cyberattack made by one state against another, resulting in damage against critical infrastructures or financial networks, might legitimately be considered an armed attack if attribution could be reliably proved. In Lebanon, 2006, and Georgia, 2008, each side launched cyberattacks before the armed conflict. -- John B Sheldon, Professor, USAF Advanced school, 2010.
Summary Rand Report to Air Force. (starts on page 5)
full Rand Report - 238 pages
Navy on March 10th completed a Massive Multiplayer Online War Game, Leveraging the Internet -- received 3,500 ideas from geek players by crowd sourcing.
Framing Policy
Other Miscellaneous Threats
Asteroids
Like the moon, Earth is pockmarked with craters caused by asteroid impacts, suggesting that such strikes happen frighteningly often.
For instance, during the Tunguska event in 1908 in Siberia, up to 80 million trees were wiped out in a mostly uninhabited 830-square-mile area (2,150 square kilometers) by an exploding space rock. The meteorite blast packed up to 1,000 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. A space rock whizzed between us and the moon on February 15th. And Siberia was hit again -- after this was written. These threats are real.
Bio-attack
Recall Mad Cow? Mexican grapes? GMO? Open reservoirs? Horse meat?
Wildlife Services (D of Ag) "accidently" kill thousands of pets with traps and cyanid set for coyotes in residential areas. "Pets shouldn't be loose."
Government
"I am from the government and I'm here to help you."
- Stockpiling of vicious munitions at Social Security Offices.
- The “civilian national security force” is not here to protect any of them."
Read more
- Feb 7 - DHS Purchases 21.6 Million More Rounds of Ammunition.
Read more. 1.8 billion and counting.
- Obama's reference to a “civilian national security force” has been defined by his administration as "the draft," but others are not so sure. Why are billions of hollow points being stored at Social Security offices, and guards placed at the door?
Jim's Observation. Dum-dum ammunition, expanding bullets, aka hollow points, are outlawed by International Treaty. The Hague Convention of 1899 prohibits the use in international warfare of bullets which easily expand in the body. Therefore the only people that these hollow-point munitions can be used upon are American citizens.
Recommendation. Get an assault rifle and stockpile ammunition to fill large capacity magazines
-- as the Founding Fathers intended so as to assure our liberty.
- Does the draft mean 18-year old girls must register ?
- Fast and Furious -- example of institutional stupidity in concept and incompetence in execution.
Recall, the US Gov sold rifles to Mexicans with the thought to track the guns to drug dealers. And lost track of the guns. American border guards were murdered with some of those guns.
Unrest Summary
Wildlife Services (D of Ag) "accidently" kill thousands of pets with traps and cyanid set for coyotes in residential areas. "Pets shouldn't be loose." An attitude of hubris.
Human Physiology
Leading Geneticists say modern chemicals effecting genetics : pesticides, lead, fluorides, processed foods, corn syrup. Read
Jim notes : in addition, the rule of survival of the fittest has been repealed.
- Defective genes survive -- weak eyes, teeth, hearing, strength, retardation could not survive in the wild.
- Childhood, disease, and war take fewer weak from the gene pool.
- The lower classes have more kids while the educated sharply restrict offspring.
Arithmetic suggests that average IQ will go [ up | down ]
exponentially.
- Laziness and immediate gratification led to epidemic obesity.
- Health officials say 1 in 50 school kids have autism -- March 20
- IQ Decline
Moral Degradation
It didn't start with Clinton, but "2-1/2 Men" continues the line.
- Family Integrity ?
- Business Ethics ?
- Entertainment sets norms : violence, smoke & drink, situation ethics.
- Trust in Leadership -- Congress ranks lower than used car salesmen !
- Press is a daily source of spin, ie. fiction representing the opinion of
the reporter, not fact. One used to believe only half of what one heard;
now that approaches none and one can only believe half of what one sees.
Religion
- Population -- intention is to increase the sect's dominance -- expense of the planet.
- Disruptive -- via hatred, occasionally leading to war.
Recommendation. God, if I only knew ?! Morality and religion are not synonymous, but related.
Solar Storm
A solar "super-storm" would knock out Earth's communications satellites, navigation, aircraft, and cause dangerous power surges in the national grid.
The Sun will eject billions of tons of high-energy matter traveling at a million miles an hour to hit the Earth, but it is impossible to predict more than about 30 minutes before it actually happens.
Solar super-storms occur once every 100 or 200 years, with the last one hitting the Earth in 1859 (154 years ago). In 1989 a relatively minor solar storm knocked out several key electrical transformers in the Canadian national grid, causing major power blackouts.
Question : did the last solar flare end the "Little Ice-age" of AD 1550 to AD 1850 ? Read in Wikipedia. chart
Recommendation :
1. Store electronics in a metal box when not in use. I use a old-fashioned milk box.
2. Uninterruptible Power Supply for electronics in use; second best, surge protectors.
Privacy.
- 75% of human-resource professionals do online research about candidates and employees using information provided by search engines, social-networking sites, photo/video-sharing sites, personal web sites and blogs, and Twitter. 70% of U.S. recruiters have rejected candidates based on internet information.
- iPhones and iPads having the ability to record and store users locations.
- All electronic communication is monitored by NSA, minimum date-time, originating and receiving number/address. Specific messages are analysed for key words, if interesting, then whole message retrieved.
- FBI "Carnivore" mass surveillance system.
- Encryption programs (1990s) must have a back-door allowing NSA decryption.
- Identity theft. From annoying Spam harvesters to financial fraud/devastation.
- People wearing Google Glasses may surreptitiously record and broadcast private conversations.
- Aerial drones public and private surveillance.
Time Waster.
- Time wasted at airports and on income taxes are symptomatic of artificial constraints imposed on modern life. Irritation and lost productivity.
- Notifications required by the Paper Work Reduction Act have added pages to our tax return.
- An annual study of national driving patterns shows that Americans spent 5.5 billion additional hours sitting in traffic compared to the same trip in no-traffic.
Weather and Disasters.
Nature is a threat to mankind. Not just the discomfort of snow and heat. Something must be done.
Recommendation :
I propose that we outlaw negative numbers in temperatures, wind speeds greater than 50 mph, tides and floods of higher than ten feet, volcano discharge of more than a cubic mile, earthquakes greater than 5.0 on the Richter scale, and lightening that has a force of greater than one million joules. There is no need for any of these things.
HINT . when teacher's salary is tied to improved grades, grades improve, not necessarily by education.
How the legislative Process Works.
It has been asserted that Buicks are the get-away car of choice of bank robbers and in the commission of other crimes. Red is obviously an indication of emotionally instability. Outlawing this combination will take a dent out of crime and of irresponsibility at the same time. We can argue over inclusion of maroon and pink colors after we pass a bill to end this unsavory combination. Another symptom of tolerance of mass stupidity.
Autos, Alcohol, Stairs, Pools, et al
Certain activities and products are recognized as involved with deaths, but
are exempted from banishment because of utility or common demand.
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sources URL: http://www.manorweb.com/creative/2013/8threats.html
