Great Decisions Class 8. THREAT ASSESSMENT Friday, 29March2013
This After-Video Summary, and More, takes about 10 minutes to read.
The book says we are to learn about threats to the USA.
I have expended that to mean any threats to the American people.
They also want us to be able to rank the threats. Their criteria are death rates. My criteria includes quality of life. But, ... How does one - value quality of life . . . with life itself?
What other threats are of interest to you? Book recommends brainstorming a list, estimate seriousness, then discussing that list, Finally re-vote on ranking after discussion. Cute. But I doubt we can complete our discussion the major threats in this one class. Consider if you want some to become roundtable topics.
Concerning the Video.
I take exception to the words “Sacred Cow” for defense.
There were politicians in the 1930s who bragged they were cutting the budget to the bone,.. and then cutting some more. This resulted in Americans in the Philippines being without combat boots, and with single shot rifles left over from WWI, and then being marched off in a Bataan Death March.
Title I Traditional Threats
US provides security around the world. Big expense and we can ask why we are a global policeman? Equally valid question is, What if we were not?
Interesting he says 2MM persons as the total deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq. We can believe her when she says 50% of defense budget is people. But consider that cuts will be taken out of the newest projects, possibly the most important .. because "the establishment” is well entrenched.
Title II is Asymmetric War.
A. Terrorism. U.S. is considering attacks against USA. AND from domestic terrorists.
An issue is: Big War vs. Insurgencies. We always prepare to fight the last war ... because that is the best predictor on a next war. US had 17 battleships at the start of WWII; in three hours, eight of the newest were on the bottom of Pearl Harbor, victims of a new weapon, air power. But! Japan was fighting the last war also, by nature of attacking our battleships.
Drones and Seal Teams are presented as the New War. But, we don't know
what really might happen. Like the war in Spain in 1930s, these are techniques
being tested before the real war starts.
B. Cyber War. Computer attacks were made before recent combats and peacetime attack=tests are happening now to see if the techniques work. Korea this last week. Question: Is a Cyber attack - an Act of War? If no people really die, just lose all their new sources and financial records and shut down the banking system? Or shut of electricity? And water? A proposal was issued this week trying to establish Rules for Cyber warfare, such as what is not a legitimate target. Almost a pathetic attempt, to my way of thinking. War is war.
C. Anthrax – and other Bio agents. Consider the Black Plague killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population, 20% worldwide. Is the 14th century too ancient history? The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed off only 2% of the world, but still about 75 million persons. Mad Cow Disease - 4.4MM cattle were destroyed in little ol'England alone in attempts at containment. I was in Holland in 2001, not just steaks, but the famed Cheese Market might as well not have been held, except for tourists.
D. Suitcase bomb. Nuclear weapons are a step up in destructive power. One bomb at Hiroshima was the equivalent of one thousand bombing planes -- about a week of B-29 raids. Ho, hum. One plane at risk rather than 1000; saved a lot of our air crews. Any bomb is destructive and to be avoided. Nuclear is just a bigger, better bomb.
III. Defense on a Budget.
Key point of all Budgeting is which projects get funded? Consider politics, last war items, new war items, research, what people are to be included in what mix?
The defense budget was once our major expense item. Now it is only 20%, Social is 54%, Other 22%,and 6% interest on debt. A household might have 3.5% mortgage; the government is spending twice as much money we don't have. Barny Franks is wanting to cut defense by 21%. Even Obama says only 7%, Republicans want 6%; the horrible sequester calls for 10% of selected items. But even with sequester, the spending budget goes up each year. The cry is to increase spending even more -- more , More, MORE!
USS Truman did not deploy in March, thus leaving only one aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf. When it puts into port, there is nobody on guard.
Navy is retiring 6 frigates and 3 cruisers this month - and an equal number of each, again by October. We had been replacing destroyers at the rate of 3 a year, now down to 1/year and we are 16 under planned replacements -- with no frigates coming and 16 aging cruisers to be “modernized” instead of replaced. I suppose the Army and Air Force has similar restraints, which is to say, un pre par ed ness es.
Cyber war - The whole world uses the same computer systems – 20 computer whiz kids can shut down a country.
The nature of threats is unpredictable.
Defense is insurance against risk. Which risks get funding?
IV. Policy Options
US has a long Pacific Coast, from Aleutian Islands near Siberia down to Mexico 3,000 miles, interrupted only by a bit of British Columbia.
Shift of focus is to the Pacific. We talked about NATO in class 3, but Putin is getting frisky and Muslims are expanding their interest.
U.S. has expensive, legacy systems of Army tanks, Navy ships, and Air Force bombers. Is this just last-war thinking? Or useful? Or necessary?
How does one jump directly to cyber and satellite? ... where a mistake in guessing leaves some other door open that could result in a Pearl Harbor? Do we need a substantial, conventional backup?
Threat assessment is an art. We won WW2 because of Intelligence -- we read a portion of Hitler's and Tojo's orders at the same time that their generals did. That war was still costly in lives and money.
Other issues with some claim on budgets: climate, resources, world health, financial system. People like us-in-this class like to talk about them. Where do these stand in comparison to national survival?
There is need, to respond to : many, many threats.
This concludes the text's list of Four Points.
But I have added some additional points, extending the list to sixteen in your handout from the last class. “2 more minutes.”
May I might point out that this list was made up over six weeks ago, recent events have show these to be real.
V. Asteroids/Meteors- East cost, West coast, Siberia - is this a CIA or Pentagon issue?
VI Bio-attack - by natural as well as intentional
VII Government - is arming for domestic unrest due to their policies.
Precedent that when a cult of personality meets resistance, tyranny begins.
VIII Human physiology - weakening of the gene pool – physical AND mental capabilities
IX. Moral Degradation – of marriage, ethics, entertainment, leadership
X. Religion-- excess population, disruptive – often leading to war
XI Solar Storm -- see asteroids. Don't depend on electric working.
XII Privacy -- will there be such? Freedom of information or personal invasion?
XIII. Imposition -- on our time imposed by policies -- airports, taxes.
XIV. Nature -- weather and disasters, see asteroids, but the human
contribution is trivial to Mother Nature and Amun-Ra, the Sun God.
XV. Legislative Idiocy -- fable of red Buicks in the handout.
XVI. Exceptions. -- autos, alcohol, stairs, pools, and more are all killers, but too valuable -- the real "sacred cows."
Does anybody feel passionately about any particular threat and want to begin? Or should we take them in order?
First was traditional threats -- Iran, N.Korea, China, Islamist? Where does this fit in threat level and where should it fit in our budgeting?
WRAP-UP.
How to measure threat for RANKING. All politics is local, lets make
it personal to YOU. There will probably be multiple HIGH RANKING items.
Raise your hand if willing to donate $1,000 to fix each threat. I was going to ask you to put our money on the table by the door on our way out.
But I could not answer this quiz: some effect me, some effect the nation, some effect mankind.
1 . Conventional – tanks, ships, planes, training
2 . Asymmetric – drones, seals, anti-terror
3 . Cyber security – domestic & international
4 . Climate, resources, health, financial system
5 . Asteroids/Meteors – detection and destruction
6 . Biological -- natural & intentional
7 . Government tyranny
8 . Human physiology - physical and mental
9 . Moral degradation - end of marriage
10. Religious problems
11. Solar Storm
12. Privacy
13. Impositions
14. Natural Disasters
15. Avoid Legislative Idiocy
Last update: 24Mar'13
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