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TWO. Social Change.
The Future of Humankind Creative Retirement 19Aug2016
What does the future hold for the human species? A year or so ago we saw that the Singularity is coming, that point where robots equal and then exceed human intelligence with Artificial Intelligence. That presentation said the robots are coming and will inherit the earth sometime soon after 2040, 24 years from now. But human kind is not standing still. We have a certain level of freewill. And the world has certain level of surprises. Maybe we will get into a global war, the robots will be for our side and people get so afraid that a political revolution clamps down on artificial intelligence or something equally bizarre. Let’s put off the robots scenario and see what humans can do on their own.
I had wanted to do a presentation last August, but could not fit me into his schedule. That presentation, A new world is coming” is on the 2015 web site. I rewrote that, in June of this year and events have advanced, many of the predictions came true during the writing. Since then I have had to rewrite it again. Progress will continue to advance in the two weeks until the next class. Look for it.
Time magazine and Smithsonian both had cover articles on CRISPR, which was intended as the heart of this presentation, and the Chinese are doing work on humans. To express the emotional impact of “The Future”, you have viewed the movie “Transcendence” and thought about the questions
and have more of your own.
In 2003, two teams raced to the completion of mapping the human genome. Hint, competition is good and spurs on progress. That is why wars advance science. Jet aircraft were an inventors’ dream in 1939 and by the end of the war, there were 2,000 jet aircraft flying -- mostly German. Fortunately, the Allied side invented the computer, it was intended for artillery ballistics tables, but also used to break the German code so the Brits could read Hitler’s orders to his generals . . . before those same Generals could open their mail. By the way, the British government rewarded the inventor of that computer and winner of the war for them with chemical castration and he killed himself. The American government rewarded the head of the atomic bomb project -- which Emperor Hirohito credits with ending the Pacific War – by withdrawing his security clearance and he self-exiled to an island in the Caribbean. These two side-notes are to caution that governments have their own agenda wrapped in stupidity, thus a logical conclusion is not assured with anything that involves any government. Such chaos may retard the robots’ takeover and allow us an opportunity to conjecture about a future to human existence. Thus we can have optimism that free enterprise can work its magic.
Point. Humans can be improved. We are here today to determine what improvements are desired and/or are likely.
There are several levels of improvement, those that are temporary -- limited to the individual, perhaps for a lifetime, perhaps not --
and those that are transmitted through the genes to enter the pool of human makeup.
Temporary – certainly not affecting offspring, includes
Makeup cosmetics, hair coloring, high heels; Liposuction, butt lifts ; dentures, hearing aids, telephones to extend range, eye glasses, telescopes, microscopes ; stimulants such as coffee and other drugs.
Lifetime -- inoculations, body art, implants, artificial limbs certain gene manipulations, stem cells to regrow organs, lens replacements after cataract surgery.
Next steps -- brain implants, neuroprosthetics -- who does not want better memory to retain more information with faster recall for thinking, to be able to remember - "Why did I come into this room." Bluetooth from brain to the internet.
Genetic -- DNA changes. Eliminate genetic defects such as color blindness, cystic fibrosis, down syndrome, muscular dystrophy, sickle-cell, Parkinson’s, Klinefelter, and perhaps Alzheimer’s. This list is fairly well received and is used by supporters of gene manipulation.
More controversial is genetic improvements.
This is commonly called "designer babies". We will share your thoughts on this in class. Do we desire our children to have deep blue eyes, thick, blond hair, facial symmetry, athletic strength and coordination ; intelligence, ability to do numbers, social empathy ; freedom from inheritable disease ; extended vision into infra-red and ultra-violet, extend hearing above 20,000 cycles per second and -- heaven forbid -- to below 20 cycles, perfect pitch ; eliminate intolerance to lactose, gluten, and peanuts ; skin color and whether it is changeable with chameleon-like capability to meet current fashions (now tending towards brown), and whether it can glow in the dark with an already approved jellyfish gene ; (Hint: buy stocks in glow in the dark tattoos) -- and long life (there is a death gene or a combination that allows indefinite DNA replication which wears down in normal people).
Genetically, we will be creating (or contaminating) the whole gene pool of mankind. Creating new breeds of people. A Pomeranian and a Great Dane both started as wolves on the plains of Uzbekistan 40,000 years ago.
A Breed -- "a stock of animals within a species having a distinctive appearance and typically having been developed by deliberate selection."
Also called a sub-species.
A Race – as used for humans - is a social construct involving a cultural component.
How might these be accomplished?
Selective breeding – as with dogs, hogs, cattle, race horses.
Direct manipulation of DNA
We can make human animals into anything with genetic engineering as you will see in the animation with CRISPR -- in only 9 months (or 20-years if you would rather.)
An android is totally mechanical, i.e. a robot. A robot can be a mechanical arm that welds driver-side, rear doors on a Chevy assembly line, or Star Trek's Mr. Data brought as to life by Brent Spiner.
Or simply software as in Collins’ and Fisher's material planning systems such as I installed 20 years ago, metropolitan traffic control systems, or a date matching service such as eHarmony for seniors.
A cyborg is part human, part robot, almost by definition this is a non-genetic passed on condition. Do cyborgs sound ominous, such as the alien, planet destroying race on Star Trek? What about knee and hip replacements? Pace-makers? Lens replacements after cataract surgery. Do we have any cyborgs in this classroom? Will such persons be subjected to robot regulations when those regulations come to pass? The European Union is contemplating a robotic bill of rights. What on earth might that consist of? *1
The currently latest generation of Digital TVs contain organic light-emitting diodes (OLED) *2 said to extend color spectrum and have deeper blacks. This will be a boon to anybody who watches English movies which are rich on films with night scenes. Note that the range of cyborg runs from a mechanical part in a person to a human DNA speck in a computer chip. It is the points in between that this gets interesting.
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*1 In high-tech South Korea, where the government plans to put a robot in every home by 2020, officials have considered codes of conduct for the human interaction with robots.
*2 Technically OLED use organic chemicals as opposed to metallic compounds.
Chimera {Ki mir ə} is part human and part animal. Hybrids exist only in mythology. Classic definition is Greek myth of a monster of many parts. (That definition has changed in the online dictionary since I started this to acknowledge human stem cells or human DNS is now being transplanted into pigs as hosts for replacement organs that will not be rejected in transplantation to humans.)
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/545106/human-animal-chimeras-are-gestating-on-us-research-farms/
Questions: What percentage of a human content constitutes human vs. animal? Please note that a hog already contains a 98% overlap with human DNA. (A Bonobo is 98.8%) Yet, people get upset in fractional humanity such as a fetus at 3-months before birth as a potential tax paying human. Yet those of us who attended the field trip to the Great Ape Trust met Kanzi, a bonobo, who was determined by a team to have the IQ of a six-year old. (That might be a stretch, but I will go as far as a 5-year old.) But she is certainly smarter than whoever decided to teach her totally abstract symbols instead of bi-directional American Sign Language. Anyway. Kanzi, has limited human rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness -- yet is infinitely smarter than the unborn.
Peripheral questions. At what point does humanity come into existence? At one step from an ape, as Lucy the upright Australopithecus {aus tra lo pith e cus}? Or as Homo habilis, the stone tool maker, or Homo erectus who populated most of the world? Homo antecessor who was common to Homo sapiens (humans) and to Homo Neanderthal, our cousins? Would a Neanderthal - Cro-Magnon child conceived in beastly rape be human? Philosophers can argue over dancing on the head of a pin about that. All these animals, including Homo sapiens sapiens (modern man) and his various breeds from round the earth exist or have existed. I am not asking when a soul is created, because many beloved pets certainly are perceived as having a soul by those who love them.
Do we need to define levels of chimera? Does a heart value replacement with a pig’s tissue constitute a chimera level #1 mostly human ; and a hog with transplant rejection amounts of human DNS constitute level #9 - mostly animal, as far as human rights? This will be a lawyer's delight and a theologian’s nightmare.
We have three-party, fully human babies being created today. Usefully, one mother with a genetic disorder has the faulty DNA replaced with DNA from a genetically correct mother, and, of course, a male. What are the inheritance rules by state governments?
What about single parent cases, such as cloning? No plurality of parents needed. What are the inheritance rules there ... as created by the uninformed, but best legislators that money can buy?
There are now officially six sexes. Boys, girls, gay, lesbian, anything goes, and transvestite. We need another category of transgender for m->f and f->m. Else, what will birth certificates say about which toilet must be used. At what percent of animal DNA will a chimera be able to hoist a leg on a fire plug in public.
Will the marvels of genetically engineered babies and creation of a whole new generation of super-kids be a right for all parents or just to the rich and to politicians? It is only fair to include the procedures for all citizens: “Right, Bernie?” CRISPR for all. But, he doesn't know how to pay for free college !` By the time we get to all of us residing in the U.S., will the privileged early adopters have already created a super-human branch if society? By the time we get to all citizens, will the spawn of these first designer babies have started a super race of what once was considered the elite -- who will now be truly elite. Will these want to give up their super privileged status from their super capabilities? They will be able to bribe legislators with promises to be let into the club and determine who else to let in or shut out by acts of legislation? Are we talking about the top 100 families who can independently afford the genetic procedures of designer self and designer babies? Will there be efforts to automate the genetic procedures so that more, or everybody can be included? Who is everybody? What about limitation to only citizens -- just or unjust? What about the peoples from Darfur?
What genetic traits are to be made available? When everybody gets long life, what happens to over-population pollution? Will Muslims go to war to destroy the technology of unbelievers? Or will we go to war if the Chinese develop it first and will not share with their economic competitors?
Nation-al-ism is a strong force. The Universal Language of Basic English is based on the de facto international language of English so that minimal learning time is required for the greatest number of people. Yet, nations reject English out of hand and the world continues in a state of Babel with all the expense and lost effort that entails. Will brain implants that contain the wisdom of the internet be rejected because it includes the Hebrew Bible. As Director of the Basic English Institute, I have had people complain because the Basic English word for “house of religion” is not Mosque.
Now we have a dilemma.
If we run out of steam in discussing designer babies for our new subspecies of humankind, we have three other topics. 2. Social Change. 3. Economics. And 4. the movie
I have prepared a talk on each which we may or may not get to.
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TWO. Social Change.
The super-race of enhanced people will create a new world of society. What will it look like? The concept of pride in providing a fair day's work for a fair day's pay will likely change.
I am proud to have been an engineer who helped build a nation with a high standard of living. My neighbors are proud to have been farmers able to feed the world. Others are proud to have been teachers to have influenced the next generation. But work and careers are on the wane. Many will be glad to see the menial factory job and the drudgery of field work go away. An Apple and Samsung supplier just reduced its workforce by 60,000 people with the advent of robots. They say it will have no impact on employment. “Double speak” is still with us along with replacement of paying jobs.
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36376966
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quWFjS3Ci7A (shorten clip of Amazon warehouse)
We have two contradictory models and a slew of others. That of the multi-generational welfare underclass, thought of as a life of idleness and drugs. Or, that of Creative Retirement community, who, after a life as constructive members of society, engage in volunteerism and continued learning. What a contrast!
What will become the new normal for a feeling of self-worth as contributing members to society? The suburban housewife, presented with a life of comparative automation (push a button to reorder groceries delivered to the door by Uber or Amazon Prime Now), compared to her mother who had to push a shopping cart around -- and her great-grandmother’s dawn to dusk workload -- now finds modern woman entering the workforce to contribute and for satisfaction of worth. Yet some found a life with rounds of bridge club and tennis to be fine. The desire to work, to contribute, seems to be a fairly fundamental need. To strive for success is part of humanness and the race’s ability to make progress. We may or may not easily adjust to a society of entitlement.
Global Demographics of population growth. Children have stopped dying from childhood disease and now survive to breed. Therefore, there are now more people in mid-years with increasing demand for housing and all aspects of living -- the need for “things”. Concerning the elderly: people are not dying on time, have extended life spans, to be stretched further, absorbing health care resources. Elderly are to more than double by the time of The Singularity. A target for robotics is to displace eldercare workers. Moore’s Law says technology doubles every two years. Population doubles in ten (procreation plus living longer). Thus our salvation? Do we package humans for efficiency into urban apartments with an equitable allocation of “stuff”.
Or, perhaps populate a different planet or even an alternate universe as String Theory suggests.
Switzerland just voted down a universal wage of an annual $45,000, but that may be in our future and become the new normal. A government debit card for all citizens (and Hillary will include immigrants) to be replenished monthly,(UBI, universal basic income) and, thus, be able continue with the capitalist concept of supply and demand for goods and services. Or is the idea of a classless society in which you can visit a government online store to pick out whatever you want to be delivered. How long can that last? “Idle hands are the devil's workshop”, as the saying goes. Without competition for power in the tribal or the corporate world, will there be conspiracies and a return to warlord-ism, i.e. gangs and coups with leadership by the strongest. What will we select to become in the future? Do we redefine “responsibility”?
Consider the rest of the world. In this class there is a fondness to say that we should respect other societies and to try not impose our concepts on them. Does that mean withhold technology of improvement and efficiency from genetics and robotics? Will we slow the spread of these advantages to our people in our country so as to give to others? Will the power structure in other countries further spread the inequalities of social class of their existing aristocracy with significant “haves” and continue rule by specific families and deepen the divide from the peasants? These people have always considered themselves better than others, now with a vacation spent in the west (for genetic enhancement), it will be a fact.
Will strength genes be given to a working class for the benefit of the mighty and will smartness implants be limited to the leading families? Will the divide between the brilliance of Western culture and darkness of world barbarianism be extenuated? Will Christians further flaunt their superior ways over the heathen? What if Taiwan or Korea develops the technology first? What will a two-year head start on super-human population mean to global power? Can a fascist regime catch-up and surpass a moderate and confused democracy? What if a high school student, studying the manipulation of DNA life forms, creates a super-virus?
Time July 21 2016
Round Table References
http://www.manorweb/creative/2014/singlularity.html Singularity
http://www.manorweb/creative/2015/singhl.html Headlines
http://www.manorweb/creative/2015/newculturecoming.doc Smarter than US
PART THREE. What supports the Future Economy? D
Be realistic. Only corporations and the richest capitalists will be able to afford robots, physically enhanced bodies, and to even continue to live other than the minimum existence in the future. There will be a technician class to trouble-shoot and service the systems and of course the politician, entertainment, and religious castes which have always been. There will need to be a genius class because robotic intelligence is based on memory of all that has happened before -- I don't see much in creativity with computers, rather chiefly a copying of templates.
Are we to expect that on August 19, 2040 -- when The Singularity arrives -- that we will each be issued a 100,000-dollar personal robot, be scheduled for brain implants, have our bodies genes fixed of all ills, with enhancements, and receive an unlimited debit card?
This may be the political platform of Bernie's successors -- people always appreciate a free lunch -- just print money with no expectation of ever paying it back until default. The 2001 Information Please Almanac showed that Greece had less debt per capita than the USA -- then Greece went on a socialist spending spree, defaulted, and was bailed out by hard working, responsible Germans. Who is there to bail out the Americans? China, out of the goodness of their heart? Whenever there is a good thing, people will flock to it, (accept China probably isn’t going to allow immigration).
Witness the strivers towards the EU of today for cradle-to-grave subsistence, the influx of “dreamers” into the U.S. of the last decade for free social systems, and the Okies to California on Route 66 of yesterday for promises of mansions shown by Hollywood in the “talkies”.
There should be a way to convert the efficiency offered by robots into benefits for all the people. Our American way is to have corporations and entrepreneurs innovate in search of profit, thus to raise all ships on a tide of prosperity. But free enterprise says to lay off those unneeded workers. The social safety net says to provide for the neediest first. That is to say, the least productive go to the head of the line for handouts. Will there be anything left for classic, middle class Americans? There are already proponents of lowering or discontinuing Social Security (which most, if not all of us, have paid into but receiving back smaller checks each year for the last half-decade.
People with their Social Security replaced with universal basic minimum will feel much as those responsible citizens who paid off their student loans before forgiven. Or those who paid off their mortgage before renegotiated.
Without population under control, there is an infinite call upon resources. With people idle at the same time that there is a need, the condition must be solvable. Government might nationalize the productivity of Robots to give security to the huddled masses, (my two-tier tax scheme probably won't work) but bureaucracy just might try confiscation and cause innovation to stagnate and to squander large sums on lobbyist induced projects. I hope somebody makes this a Round Table topic because I would like to see some good options – of which I don't see any right now.
Perhaps we can just take it on faith that there is, or will be, a solution and continue after the break on how we want for human-kind to evolve. To discuss what features you think would be desirable in a "designer human" for the next generation leading to a new breed or sub-species of human kind. What people want often comes to pass. We have had crises in the past and survived. Thinking about it can help.
“Life, the Remix” – Time, July 4, 2016, 5 pages on CRISPR.
“There have been other techniques for altering DNA, but those were expensive and complicated. CRISPR is neither.”
“Editing of Human Genes May Begin by Year’s End in the U.S.” Smithsonian,
June 23, 2016 .
Reintroduce normal, well-adjusted humans
http://www.theonion.com/article/scientists-slowly-reintroducing-small-group-normal-52632
Include the driverless bicycles video to add a bit of levity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSZPNwZex9s
jlb v03Aug’16
PART FOUR. TRANSENDENCE , the Movie
This is not an action movie, you will have to pay attention.
Brilliantly nuanced with compelling arguments on every issue of A.I.
You will end up questioning everything, or I hope so.
Contains vital ideas relevant to ethical questions that we'd better start asking now.
Some of the technology may seem fantastic before this class, but you will see then that it is all possible or soon will be. The promise is that virtually anything can done with nano-technology. For genetics, consider the tentacles in the medical scenes as CRISPR bio-chemical fabricators which would not show as well in video.
You will want to watch it again after this class, perhaps with friends and get their thoughts. I still don't understand the enigmatic ending, but the ethical issues of man and technology are clear.
Or are they?
"We have stone age emotions,
medieval institutions,
and God-like technology.
That is the source of our problems." (as a species)
-– Edward O. Wilson (Sociobiology) - Harvard University
Stephen Hawkings said about Transcendence, "It would be a mistake to not take this film seriously."
Other recent movies that offer contribution to aspects of the discussion are : "Her", "Ex-Machina", and "Elysium", and the 1970 classic, “Colossus, the Forbin Project”
"Transcendence" is the most well rounded on the issues.
Questions for the class:
Several Themes in the Movie, "Transcendence",
Is A.I. the greatest boon to human kind, or the greatest threat?
The question is not if they can...but if they should.
Inequity of abilities creates -- envy, discomfort, FEAR.
"People fear what they do not understand."
Human Reactions:
* Arrogance -- We already live in the proper world, in the best of all possible universes
* Luddite -- if it is a change, then I will be disrupted ; damn the greater good.
* Tribalism -- these new people are different, an unknown..
I propose that all transcendencees be colored blue and marked with bar code version numbers.
* Religion -- God must have wanted us to have deficiencies to have given us so many as trials of faith.
* Be First -- the initial developer or adopter of A.I. will impart their concepts of goodness, right, justice, or of a belief system.
Movie questions
The pro-human radicals said "they crossed the line." What is the line? Where is the line? Who determines? How do we know?
(To me, the line was the collective mind. "To resist is futile", to quote the Star Trek half machine, half human--Borg. That hive mind became an abomination to me. Hybrids are more acceptable, but what if the enhancements are used for evil instead of good. Can that be controlled? Should they be controlled? )
Who are the good guys and who are the villains?
Is knowledge good or evil?
Ahh, the age old conflict of good versus evil is becoming more and more complex.
Uploading of a person's brain -- is the idea only that of adequate storage? http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000521997
Can an A.I. be conscious? What is Consciousness?
Can an artificial intelligence feel love. What is love?
Can "life" become immortal? Then what? What is death?
What defines humanity? Or are we just biological electro-chemical machines?
Can an uploaded mind remain human? That question is of science fiction, we can't know until well after something happens.
Is un-natural bad? If it can exist, does it become natural?
Has other A.I. been suspended while the town is being built. In "Person of Interest", there is a competing intelligence to make for story interest.
(Is this a case of who gets there first, wins. Consider : China, Korea, Israel, USA.)
The assumption is that A.I. "Needs to grow, to advance. ...Has a massive appetite for power. ... Will want more. ...Want to evolve. ... To Influence." Must it be evil/bad? Can it be good? At what risk? Morgan Freeman must have been raised on the movie "Colossus" (1970)
A.I. will optimize for efficiency. Will it optimize its own efficiency to the detriment of humans? To make exclusion of bothersome entities, much as mosquitoes. Or people?
What are A.I.'s goals? To serve man? Which men?
Police are to serve the public -> police state? Marshalltown’s tank!
Old Twilight Zone, the alien's good-will manual titled "To Serve
Man" is found to be a cook book.
Is it an "abomination and threat to society?" Or is A.I. an answer to our prayers?
Can A.I. be avoided? Now that we have Internet, can we live without it in order to prevent A.I.?
Could world cooperation ever be achieved to expand or to destroy ... the Internet, ... Technology? *1
*1 (China had the world’s highest level of technology in the Ming Dynasty, then in 1430's, completed the Great Wall, closed China to the outside world and changed to Confucian scholarship and bureaucracy.)
Is it true, that "once people see what it can do, they will embrace it?" The wife embraced it, then didn't, then ?? The government certainly didn't. Or is it that the government didn't have it first? Or, it is that it is outside of government regulation (political power)
It seems that the recipients of transcendence favored the new future.
Some who have not experienced it have made up their minds that it must be destroyed in the interests of humanity with all the weaknesses that entails.
Most of us have no idea what is going on.
I think at the end, he developed a fail-safe plan, that should he be destroyed, his garden would survive with some components of the planet healing technology.
Or is it that nono-tech is in the water that reaches the garden where the virus cannot. Remember, he built it to be shielded, unaffected by technology/internet. The sunflower came back to life.
On Second viewing
Notice human greed, the vicious attack on Contractor by thugs.
Response to super-humans, “Building a private army -- we need to call Washington.”
Notice that Evangeline has a maid : a lady or a robot?
Her key concern is brought about by invasion of “my thoughts, my feeling.”
Any concern by you of big data, social media, surveillance. Privacy is gone.
Prospects of immortality. Long life body and digital storage of memory.
Note A.I. using nano-technology for building human parts, assembled as entire human bodies as next step in evolution.
End of organic life. Replaced by superman.
How do you vote : Yes or No?
Theme by Luddites is “This is not Will", he did not want to remake the world, you (Evangeline) did?”
Did Will adopt her goals once able to make it happen?
Or, is enhancement a characteristic of an A.I.