Black Swan Theory -- Rare bird, assumed not to exist. Hense, an unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and of a dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. Examples: Internet, PC ; birth control pill ; WWI, 9/11 Only rationalized to be understood after the fact. Mathamatical forecastings, as I used to do, cannot acknowledge Black Swans I allowed manual over-ride to entertain new conditions about which we had no experience. Theory has interest in finance, stock market, government, ...