Great Decisions 2009-4
Europe Should Fear Warming Because it Will Bring Cold
Latitude . On looking at a globe one will find that Europe does not correlate with the North American
concept to north and south. Sunny, warm Madrid is in the south of Europe, but is not opposite
Miami, It is on the same latitude as Lincoln, Neb ; Bruxelles is north of Winnipeg ; London about Calgary ;
Amsterdam is near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan ; Copenhagen opposite Ketchikan, Alaska ; Helsinki close to Dawson Creek, B.C ; and Oslo north of Seward, Alberta on the southern boundary of Yukon. Why are these cites
of Europe habitable? It is because the Gulf Stream brings warm South Atlantic waters up the east coast of the US (warming New England) and on to Europe before returning to pickup warmth again as the North Equatorial Current flowing between Africa and Florida. (The hurricane route.) I have worked in England and Belgium ; winter flurries dissipated on contact with the warm European soil and the grass stays green year round... Nice!
Global warming . The earth is in the warming stage of an Interglacial from the last Ice Age, -- the Wurm Glacial (or Wisconsin in the US), that ended about ten thousand years ago. There could be another ten or twenty thousand years of warming
ahead of us. (Or not.) When the glaciers of Canada, Greenland and other Artic and the Antarctic melt, they will release
water that will flood the Low Countries of Europe; Holland and Denmark; and in Asia, such as Bangladesh and Indonesia. In general, warming is considered to be good -- bountiful crops and pleasant weather. But it does cause disruption of things as they are.
Concern .
Need we be concerned about things occurring over the course of a millennia? If it is not in the next 5-year budget or
by the second term election, then do we need to worry about it? Gradual change is accepted as normal by the
following generations. (A millennia is about 40 generations, a long time to a child, but most of us in this
room have lived through three such generations. ) The once fertile crescent is now desert, Greece and Italy are barren rock in places that
were bountiful. Iowa once had 26 inches of top soil. It is down to 6 inches now, but that will last long enough to
get the tractor paid off. However, global change is not always slow. They say that three meters of sea rise occurred
within a few weeks when Lake Agassiz (covering Manitoba and Minnesota) flooded into Lake Ojibway (covering Ontario) then through the ice dams into Hudson Bay and on to Greenland 8,400 years ago. And the flood myths that exist in almost all ancient civilizations may date to this period when the Mediterranean overflowed the Bosporus to create the Black Sea 7,600 years ago when the water level was ten feet higher than today. Greenland was green 1,000 years ago, yet stage coaches crossed the Baltic Sea 500 years ago. There are cycles within cycles.
Future . Europe is in the lead to halt global warming for good reason. Warming will bring flooding, just as it brought tides into the shoreline villages of our ancestors. The cycle cannot be stopped -- the earth will warm. Mankind's impact may just effect the speed with which it occurs. Note that man is part of the earth system as much as the earth is part of man's system. At some point, rather quickly by earth-time,
the warming will reverse and we will enter the next Ice Age and colder is the norm for our planet. The mechanisms of the earth will counter-balance
every condition -- which is why there are cycles of warm and cold, reverses of magnetic north and south, and so on. How will the next big temperature change happen? If the following scenario is correct, then it may happen sooner because of man's influence. The release of massive amounts of fresh cold water stored in the Artic and Antarctic will change the ocean currents. One effect will be to turn off the Gulf Stream. Europe (that peninsula of Asia) then will not be protected by that source of warmth. The North Pacific Current will flow across the top of Canada (that is currently opening the once frozen Northwest Passage to shipping) and bring Artic cold through the Labrador Current into
the Atlantic. Gulf Steam warm may be replaced with Labrador cold, bringing glacial conditions back to Europe. Western Europe will freeze. It has happened before. The North Sea and Baltic will ice over. Water locked in glacial ice will lower sea levels so that a person can once again walk over snow covered land from Spain to Ireland to Norway to Alaska to Greenland.. It is all part of the global cycle. When will it happen? Months, centuries? All the rocket scientists are looking for killer asteroids. The nuclear physicists are …; well. The second or third team is just starting to look at flooding. And none are looking at the benefits.
Life goes on .
My lease on earth expires in a few years and I will not spend time worrying about asteroids, annihilation, or a deluge. Meanwhile, lets enjoy these milder winters, the longer springs and falls, and a greater variety of birds and flowers.
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