Creative Retirement
ASTRONOMY -- Voyages of Discovery -- Fall 2008
Class 6 : -- Global Warming
The instructor is also a lecturer on Man-Made Global Warming.
I am inclined to think that the Earth and its Sun control gross surface temperatures on our planet.
I will accept WOI weatherman Elynn Taylor's view that man might account for up to 5%
of the current rise in temperature.
The goal of this page is to substantiate that patterns of historic temperature variation occur, are of nature, and to affirm that such cyclic conditions have not been revoked and apply today.
Last 2000 Year Temperatures Chart
Last 13.7 billion years Chart and last 10,000
years of modern man Table
- Medieval Warm period begins some time about 900AD (-1100 years ago) and ends by 1100AD (900 years ago)
a spike up in temperature whose speak lasted about 200 years.
- Little Ice age begins1300AD (700 YrAgo) and ends about 1850 (150YrAgo), a little over 500 years
The change was 0.7°C in 400 years.
We have now warmed back to the level of the Medieval Warm within a larger pattern of retreat from the last great ice age.
If we link cause and effect we might say that the Medieval Warm sparked the recovery from the Dark Ages if simple existence into
the Middle Ages of restoration and certainly supported Lief Ericson's ventures to a "green land".
The following Little Ice Age may have sparked innovation of the Renaissance into the Industrial Age.
This cold period ended about the time of the American Civil War.
Current warming cycle of the most recent century has and will generate what marvels?
Previous warm periods:
- Holocene 10,000 years ago (about 8000 BC). continues to the present. Climatic shifts were very large.
- Holocene Climate Optimum was a warm period during roughly the interval 9,000 to 5,000 years B.P.
average 1.6±0.8°C higher than present
(A different source): The hypsithermal was a period of warming in which the global climate became 0.5--2°lC warmer than today.
This period ended about 5,500 years ago.)
On a longer scale:
- Eemian Interglacial, which peaked at roughly 125,000 years ago and was warmer than the Holocene.
Milankovitch cycles
This climatic event is a result of predictable changes in the Earth's orbit and
a continuation of changes that caused the end of the last glacial period.
The effect would have had maximum Northern Hemisphere heating 9,000 years ago
when axial tilt was 24° and nearest approach to the Sun (perihelion) was during boreal summer.
The calculated Milankovitch cycle showed 8% more solar radiation (+40W/m²) to
the Northern Hemisphere in summer, tending to cause greater heating at that time.
Chart of Milankovitch cycles show about 22,000 year intervals.
Jim's General Conclusions
We must accept the task of planning as necessitated by global warming. Expenditure of great funds to
marginally limit man's slight contribution might be better reserved for humanitarian aid required to compensate for
those earth and sun cycles that impact on our civilization. This might mean relocating of
Bengalies to Greenland ; Hollanders to Pella. However, our government will likely buy flooded mansions that are stupidly built on beach fronts. A few moments of thought today can save billion in the future. Conservation
of natural resources is and as always has been a good idea.
Prolonged thought is useful. Consider the very humane sprite of drilling wells to support the people on the edges of
the southern Sharia Desert. Villages were able to plant and raise cattle. Consumption of the ground water caused desertification to increase from meters per year to miles per year. To have questioned the well intended efforts would have been considered mean-spired at the time. Big issues require time for discussion. But then, the current
excitement equating "man-made" with planetary warming has gone totally out of control. We might as well say jet aircraft increase the number of unpleasantly cloudy days. Somewhere, the accident of "statistics" can "prove" any point.
Frankly, I fear that any government
spending (based on experience: New Orleans, etc.) will be both misguided and over-expensive. Education to get people off of flood plains (gradually, by personal choice, at personal expense) seems reasonable. Government should lead conservation efforts and regulations. For example, move unhealthy coal fired generators out to the hinterlands
where only a few farmers will have their lives shortened.
Attachments
Proof of Global Warming
Headlines and Discussion Points from my Great Decisions 2007, Anti-Global Warming pitch.
Political Intervention : Kyoto
Another "Essay on Global Warming".
To Do:
Get longer cycle temperature charts.
Summarize and link to full U-Tube lecture by Dr. xxx, xxx Univ.
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About this page: warming.html -- Big Picture of Global Warming
Last updated on October 16, 2008
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